Elon Musk has insisted “there’s going to be a third world war,” while artificial intelligence warns the threat is real enough that the world should take it “dead seriously.”
As tensions continue to build across multiple regions, the question of whether the world is moving closer to another major war has taken on new urgency, with artificial intelligence (AI) now being used to assess the risks in ways that feel both calculated and unsettling.
On the YouTube channel IAskAI, one user asked, “How likely is World War III based on current global tensions?”
“I’d put it around 15-20%. High enough that anyone dismissing it as fearmongering isn’t paying attention, but still more unlikely than likely,” the AI replied.
That estimate came with context, pointing to nuclear weapons as the key factor that has held large-scale war at bay for decades. “That knowledge has prevented WW3 for 80 years through crises that were arguably worse than today.”
Rather than suggesting stability, however, the analysis described a fragile balance built on deterrence. “Deterrence is ugly but it works. Leaders are reckless, not insane. Even [Donald] Trump, even [Vladimir] Putin, even Xi [Jinping] – none of them wants to be the one that ends everything.”
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